Research and Development

The original Polity scheme was designed to track transitions from autocratic patterns of regime authority to more democratic patterns of authority in a world dominated by autocratic regimes. With greater globalization and the transformations of the Euro-centric and Cold War global systems in the latter part of the 20th Century, the emerging "new order" global system has shifted toward greater democratic authority. As autocratic authority grows obsolete, forward-looking research will require better information on processes of democratization. Recognizing this need, the Center for Systemic Peace and Societal-Systems Research  embarked on a major effort to upgrade the Polity Project and data series to better serve researchers in the Era of Globalization. The initial Polity5 version dataset is now posted on the CSP INSCR Data page; it includes Polity5 revised data for 76 of the 167 countries currently cover by the data series.

The Polity5 phase of the project was initiated in 2006 to confirm a major "finding" in research conducted  by the Political Instability Task Force (see AJPS 2010, Virtual Library) that the Polity-coded condition of "polar factionalism" (PARCOMP=3) is the strongest precursor to the onset of political instability, particularly for adverse regime change events but, also, for ethnic or revolutionary war events. As a necessary part of our systematic investigation into the issue of polar factionalism, we began to systematically re-examine the regime characteristics of every country that experienced an episode of factionalism at any time since 1946 using far more-detailed and systematic information (specifically, using Keesing's Online records of world events) than had been available when the original Polity data series was coded. The Polity 5 Regime Narratives that have resulted from these re-examinations include full "process tracing" for each country over the entire contemporary period, 1946-present, and a full, chronological record of every coded Polity change for that country (some begin coverage prior to the first recorded episode of "factional" competition in that country. This systematic review and revision has resulted in far more consistent and coherent explanations of the process of change in regime authority characteristcs over the contemporary period. This greater transparency will improve analytic comprehension and increase the veracity of the data and the collector/user interface. The recoding of regime characteristics has allowed us to enhance the codings of democratic authority traits so that the Polity series will continue to inform systematic, macro-comparative analyses of regimes and regime changes for the future, democratic global system. The complete re-examination of the regime histories for 167 countries is an enormous undertaking; we were about two-thirds of the way to completion as of early 2013, when Keesing's Online experienced a temporary shut-down that delayed our production (Keesing's finally came back online in early 2019). Eventually, the Polity5 data series will also be enhanced by the addition of several "plug-in" data series (e.g., EPS and Election Boycotts, see below) with information critical to a better understanding of regimes, such as the COUP data series that is currently available on the INSCR Data Page.

NOTE: With the disruption in the funding for CSP research activities, we made the decision to release a "hybrid" version of Polity5 with revised data for 74 of 167 countries as of April 2020. Most of the 74 coutries treated have experienced one or more periods of "polar factionalism" during the contemporary period, 1946 to present. We focused on this subset of countries in order to verify and confirm the factional designation. As a result, we have bolstered our confidence in the general POLITY measure of regime authority, our ability to identitfy the special condition of "polar factionalism" (or polarization) reliably and accurately, and the importance of the research finding regarding the predictive power of the "polar factionalism" in the degenerative process of "state failure." A simple comparison of the Polity5 data with the Polity IV data for the completed 74 countries shows that about 20% of data points have been altered in the revision process (revised countries are denoted by a "1" on the "p5" indicator added to the data records). It should also be noted that we have employed the Polity5 coding standards for all countries during our annual data updates since 2002. By interjecting the hybrid dataset, researchers can use a split sample to better understand how the Polity5 data refinements may affect the findings of prior research results using the Polity IV data. The Polity5 subset of cases can be analyzed to determine the differential impacts of the component or conceptual variables..

As mentioned above, the PITF finding regarding the importance of "polar factionalism" as a dynamic precursor to the onset of political instability and state failure is profound for our understanding of the process of and prospects for democratization and the consolidation of democratic patterns of authority. Researchers at the Center for Systemic Peace and Societal-Systems Research have been engaged in primary research and the analysis of the issue of polar factionalism since 2006; presenting preliminary papers on this topic at APSA and ISA conferences and in Global Report 2014. The completion of the Polity 5 data series will allow our researchers to finalize these studies for publication.

As part of our effort to enhance understanding of democratization  and democratic consolidation processes, our researchers have been developing a new data series, Executive and Party Structure (EPS), with more detailed information on the chief executive and the legislative/parliamentary party structures of regimes for all countries covered by the Polity data series over the contemporary period, 1946-present. This annual data series includes information on elections, type of executive, party of the executive, ruling party/coalition  and main opposition party share of assembly seats, and other related topics. The EPS data series is complete and is now undergoing data verification procedures to ensure accuracy and consistency with the Polity 5 data series. We hope to make the EPS data available to the public in early 2019.

Elections are an integral part of  democratic procedures and the democratization process; however, elections must be free and fair and openly contested as a show of public support for and acceptance of the precepts of democratic authority, as well as a means for the broader public to choose, or remove, its political representatives and executive leadership. Public petition, protest, and demonstration are common modes of contentious political action that challenge public policies and/or authorities. Election boycotts (and post-election, or procedural, boycotts challenge the very foundation of democratic authority by rejecting electoral procedure as the basis for regime authority. Our researchers have identified cases of election and procedural boycotts in all countries covered by the Polity 5 data series over the contemporary period, 1946-present, and coded basic information on those cases. This data series is complete and is awaiting analysis by CSP and SSR researchers; it will be released at a future date as a "plug-in" to the Polity 5 data series.

Data collection is a tedious and painstaking effort, not to mention costly and time-consuming, when it is done well. and, once created and found useful, transforms into a perpetual task. Data collection provides a foundation for scientific study and the accumulation of knowledge and, as such, the professional data collection enterprise is worthy of the investment. However, the material result of the data collection effort, the data series, records and holds only a very small portion of the value created by that effort. Data removes "facts" from their context in order to preserve key "bytes" of information to "cue" recollection and, thus, critically inform broader and more complicated modes of inquiry. What links inquiry to knowledge is understanding, especially when dealing with complex systems. Knowing how the system works is key both to managing complex information flows and understanding the diverse relationships between and among observable phenomena in reiterative schemes involving strategic behavior. Without a strong theoretical grounding and a thorough understanding of context , "facts" and "bytes" are little more than random points in a limitless and endless space perpetuating a Sisyphean task. Rational systems organize otherwise random points into structured regularities that can be created, maintained, and amended by purposeful action and, because of these commonalities and regularities, rational systems can be comprehended, managed, sustained, and transformed; forging greater order out of boundless chaos.

The Center for Systemic Peace collects data as a by-product of a insatiable desire to better understand societal-systems and, thereby, better inform public policy in order to reduce the frequency and magnitude of system failures. Systematic investigation imposes discipline on inquiry and increases confidence by allowing the analyst to derive findings and base conclusions on a preponderance of evidence.  The true value of the data collection enterprise is contained in the capacity to "re-contextualize" the evidence in a more complete and useful understanding of complex societal-systems and their effect on the human condition. To this end, the Center for Systemic Peace and Societal-Systems Research produced a lecture series or "video book" titled, Managing Complexity in Modern Societal-Systems. The video format allows for the use of animated conceptual visualization and dynamic modeling to better illustrate and explain how organic, complex, societal-systems work, how they progress or degrade, and how they can be better managed to optimize societal-system performance.

The Video Book project was completed in early 2016; both volumes of the video book (Structuration and Problemation) are now posted on our YouTube site and linked to the CSP Video Book page. The video lecture series consists of twenty video segments of between ten and sixty minutes in length (about 10 1/2 hours total time). The complete "storyboard" (PDF document) by which the video book has been organized provides a brief synopsis of the theoretical arguments and an introduction to the conceptual visualization models that constitute the methodological approach. The video book is currently being written up in a traditional print book format. The book, Managing Complexity in Modern Societal-Systems, is scheduled to be completed and published in 2021.